You can’t scroll through LinkedIn without seeing another post about how AI is “changing everything” in digital marketing. Automated bidding, content generation, predictive analytics—every tool seems to promise it’ll give you superpowers.

GA4’s predictive analytics has been especially hyped as the next big breakthrough. Marketing blogs breathlessly describe “powerful PPC applications” and the ability to predict which visitors will convert before they even know it themselves.

Here’s what those articles aren’t telling you: most businesses (at least in the Canadian market) don’t have enough online activity for these features yet. But before you panic about missing the AI revolution, there’s actually good news—GA4 has plenty of powerful features you can use right now, and mastering those fundamentals will set you up perfectly for when predictive analytics eventually becomes accessible (and proves it actually works).

The Big Promise That Doesn’t Deliver (For Most of Us) 

When GA4 launched, Google painted a compelling picture: every marketer could harness the power of predictive analytics to know who’s likely to buy, who’s about to churn (basically, stop being your customer and disappear), and how much revenue to expect. No more guessing—just pure, AI-powered insights.

But there’s a catch that most marketing articles conveniently skip over: these features only work if you have massive amounts of data that most successful businesses simply don’t generate.

The Reality Check Most Articles Won’t Give You

Here’s the uncomfortable truth that’ll save you hours of frustration: GA4’s predictive features are essentially locked behind data requirements so high that they exclude most businesses—even thriving ones.

The specific requirement? You need weeks where over 1,000 returning customers make purchases AND over 1,000 returning visitors don’t purchase. Think Black Friday-level activity, but consistently.

Translation: Unless you’re running a major retail operation or high-volume ecommerce site, these “revolutionary” features will show up as blank dashes in your reports. We’ve seen this firsthand with clients who have solid traffic and revenue but still can’t access predictive metrics.

Why This Feels Like a Beta Test (Because It Probably Is)

The impossibly high requirements aren’t an accident. By limiting access to only enterprise-level websites, Google gets clean training data for their algorithms while avoiding the reputation damage that would come from inaccurate predictions on smaller datasets.

Smart strategy for Google. Frustrating reality for everyone else.

The Evidence We’re Still Waiting For

Look, the concept sounds promising. Predicting which users will convert? That would be incredibly valuable if it works.

But here at Bluetrain, we have a rule: we need to see proof that something actually delivers results before we start recommending it to clients. And honestly, the evidence just isn’t there yet.

I haven’t come across case studies showing that “likely 7-day purchasers” actually convert within 7 days. Or research comparing these AI audiences to traditional remarketing. The few businesses that can access these features aren’t sharing much data about their effectiveness.

It’s tough to evaluate tools that most people can’t even test. We’re essentially being asked to trust in the potential without the proof.

(Anyone else getting flashbacks to Universal Analytics “Smart Goals”? Google promised those would automatically identify your most valuable sessions using machine learning. Spoiler alert: they mostly just tracked people who spent more than 60 seconds on your site. Not exactly revolutionary.)

What Actually Works (And What You Should Focus On Instead)

Don’t worry—you’re not missing the AI revolution. GA4 has plenty of features that are actually accessible and useful:

Analytics Intelligence (The Question-Answering Tool): You’ll find this in the search box at the top of your GA4 interface – you can ask it questions in plain English like “Why did my traffic drop last week?” and get simple, understandable answers with links to detailed reports. It automatically flags unusual changes like sudden traffic spikes from specific countries or unexpected drops in sales. You’ll also see an “Insights” panel on your Home page that’s powered by AI and offers snapshots of important stats, and you can click “View all insights” to see more detailed information. Think of it as your data assistant that catches things you might miss.

Enhanced Audience Building (Better Than You Think): Even without predictive metrics, you can create sophisticated user groups like:

  • Cart abandoners who left specific brand items
  • Users based on age, location, device type, and behavior combinations (note: age data requires Google Signals, which has privacy considerations – we covered this in our cookie consent guide)
  • High-engagement users who visited multiple pages but haven’t purchased
  • People who watched 75% of a video but didn’t convert

These audiences can sync with Google Ads for remarketing once you’ve linked your accounts and enabled personalized advertising.

Custom Alerts That Actually Matter: Set up custom insights to monitor specific metrics with hourly, daily, weekly, or monthly evaluation. Get notified when conversion rates drop, traffic patterns change, or revenue goals are hit—without constantly checking reports.

For Lead Generation Businesses:

  • Lead generation reports: Track form completions, demo requests, and conversion funnels
  • User engagement analysis: Understand what keeps visitors on your site longer
  • Source quality insights: See which channels bring users who actually engage (not just click and bounce)

For Ecommerce (Below the Magic Threshold):

  • Customer behavior flow: Track how users move through your site before buying
  • Revenue attribution: Understand which touchpoints actually contribute to sales
  • Seasonal pattern detection: Spot trends and prepare for busy periods

Want to Test If You’re One of the Lucky Few Who Qualify for Predictive Analytics?

The features above work for everyone, but you might be wondering: do I actually have enough traffic to access GA4’s predictive metrics? Here are two ways to check if your site qualifies for those elusive predictive audiences and churn probability features:

Method 1: User Lifetime Exploration Test

  1. Enable the hidden setting: Go to Admin > Account > Account Details > Data Sharing Settings and turn on “Modeling contributions & business insights”
  2. Try User Lifetime exploration: Navigate to Explore > Template Gallery > User Lifetime and add Churn Probability as a metric
  3. Wait 24-48 hours, then check your report

Method 2: Predictive Audience Test

  1. Check for suggested predictive audiences: Go to Admin > Audiences > New Audience > Suggested Audiences
  2. Look for the “Predictive” tab: If you qualify, you’ll see options like:
    • Likely 7-day purchasers
    • Likely first-time 7-day purchasers
    • Likely 7-day churning users
    • Predicted 28-day top spenders

  1. Try creating a custom predictive audience: In the audience builder, look for predictive metrics like “Purchase Probability” or “Churn Probability” in the conditions dropdown

What you’ll likely see: Dashes or zeros in exploration reports, or grayed-out/missing predictive options in the audience builder. Don’t take it personally—this just confirms that GA4’s requirements are as restrictive as we’ve described.

Screenshot showing the audience tab in GA4 and the warning message showing eligibiity.

If predictive features ARE available: Congratulations! You’re in the small percentage of businesses with enough data volume. Test them carefully and let us know how they actually perform compared to traditional targeting methods.

The Bottom Line: You Need to Walk Before You Can Run

If you’ve been feeling like you’re missing out on the “future of marketing analytics,” here’s a different perspective: you’re probably getting distracted from opportunities that are right in front of you.

We see it all the time with clients who get caught up in the latest predictive marketing trends while their basic analytics setup is still a mess. They’re chasing AI-powered audiences when they don’t have reliable key events configured, or dreaming about purchase probability predictions when they can’t even tell which campaigns actually drive revenue.

Google’s marketing promises about AI-powered targeting sound amazing, but honestly? Most businesses are sitting on a huge trove of data and potential insights they’ve never properly explored. Why chase theoretical features when you haven’t maximized what’s already working?

What this means for your business:

  • Master the fundamentals first: Get your conversion tracking, event setup, and basic reporting rock-solid
  • Explore the data you already have: Most clients are surprised by what they discover when they dig into their existing GA4 data properly
  • Focus on proven targeting methods: Custom audiences, lookalike targeting, and behavior-based remarketing still work incredibly well
  • Build measurement foundations that scale: When predictive features do become accessible, you’ll be ready to use them effectively
  • Make sure your data collection is above board: Ensure you’re properly handling consent and privacy requirements – we break down the Canadian landscape in our cookie consent guide

The opportunity: While your competitors chase features they can’t access, you can get really good at the fundamentals that actually drive results. Sometimes the biggest wins come from doing the basics exceptionally well, not from the shiniest new tools.

Looking forward: As Google’s algorithms improve, these requirements will likely decrease. But we’re not there yet, and there’s no timeline for when we will be.

For now, the smartest approach is building solid analytics foundations and focusing on proven targeting methods rather than chasing AI features that remain out of reach for most Canadian businesses.

Ready to stop chasing impossible features and start using analytics that actually help your business grow? That’s exactly what we help clients do every day—no PhD in data science required. Check out our Analytics services >

Want help building measurement strategies that work with your actual data volume? Contact Bluetrain to discuss what’s realistic for your business and how to get the most from the tools that are actually available.

This article was written by Terri Carlson with support from AI writing tools.